The Future of Flight

The Future of Flight

Sci-fi writers and animators have talked about and sensationalized air taxis for decades. We occasionally hear some headlines relating to the developments being made around the world - Vertical Aerospace, Lilium, Volocopter, EHang, Airbus, Rolls-Royce, Urban Aeronautics, AeroMobil, Samad Aerospace, Ascendance Flight Technologies, to name a few from around Europe. So when will we see an automated air-Uber whizzing overhead?

Back to the Future

We saw the UAV industry gain momentum after 2010. The trajectory of the UAV sector legislation, licensing, and standardization was far behind the curve of the technology available until (subjectively) around 2016 to 2018 - the proliferation and affordability of consumer-grade drones grew rapidly, leading to multiple infringements of airspace, dangerous flying in and around airports, a general distaste for them (residents citing people spying on them with impunity, drones affecting wildlife in sensitive areas, etc). Some casual (private) UAV pilots, even though it's ok to get near commercial aircraft on approach or land on an aircraft carrier in dock.

None of this was good press for the sector, so repairs need to be made to this image. For what will likely become a multibillion-dollar industry in the public and military sectors alike, multirotor and eVTOL transition aircraft will cause controversy. Ten years ago, commercial UAV operators knew that the system of laws and the public's understanding of risk mitigation was lacking, with the list of incidents illustrating that perfectly - yet the authorities were glacially slow in implementing safeguards, with only a handful of successful fines being issued for infringements. Only recently have we seen some positive progress in this area.

The EASA/FAA and country-specific aviation authorities have roadmapped far ahead to the 2030s and beyond, once again conjuring up images of a 'Jetsons-like' future, with drones zooming around delivering food, medicine, people, cargo all around us all the time.

Current Reality

The current reality is that commercial pilots operate safely, but many private individuals still do not. Companies designing and building eVTOL and large UAVs for ISR work deliver on a technical level. Still, the tardiness of the authorities has led to a slow uptake and accommodation for them in terms of airspace, type ratings, and certification, despite the technology being showcased and demonstrated at air shows around the world - and largely still illustrating what's coming through swish CGI images and marketing videos.

With advances in battery technology, increasingly sophisticated flight control algorithms, and more powerful and energy-efficient onboard computing, these new eVTOL aircraft are rapidly becoming the most computationally advanced flying machines ever created.

In terms of automated or remotely piloted flights, considerable work remains to be done regarding legislation, airspace settings, control, and unified traffic management to allow general aviation to continue to operate. For example, low-level flights around cities will be subject to intense scrutiny and, ideally, will see a level of decorum in where they operate and how frequently. Noise abatement will likely become a hot topic. Where they take off, and land will also be (in principle) wide open, given the landing footprint is so small; however, it will take some convincing to have a pad built near your house if there wasn't one before! The public reaction to automated, large drone-like aircraft flying overhead will no doubt be a challenge - as such, the authorities are planning public consultations, rigorous certification, and media-led demonstrations, proving that the introduction of eVTOL systems is safe. They shouldn't be any more of a nuisance than a helicopter we would usually see flying around.

Infrastructure is already being procured at strategic sites in some cities. Therefore, the ultimate goal of large-scale integration with existing air traffic control and command systems is nearer since the routes become more crystallized and the airspace integration pattern becomes clearer. The name 'eVTOL' may even be altered in publications to make the aircraft classification more semantically accessible to the general public.

With that Said

To the best of our knowledge, an automated eVTOL in flight can't yet respond to a verbal call from ATC to maneuver and do it accurately and reliably - there still remains a need for a 'pilot' somewhere in the loop. This is the area that needs considerable research and testing, although there are small UAVs that are demonstrating exceptional AI flight capabilities already.

So, despite the current barriers to business, startup, and existing aircraft manufacturers companies are, in a broad sense, ready to go - but there are no concrete dates set for operations to begin, despite the large investments being made. The future of air taxi services is still looking bright. The closest we have to a regular hop-on-hop-off taxi service might be in Dubai, which may be by the end of 2025. Here's hoping it's an affordable, safe, green, and clean way to get around before too long!

 

About the Author

12645775861?profile=RESIZE_180x180Sam Barnes | Sam brings a unique range of industry experience and commercial UAV operations, attending the ASOG training courses more recently and gaining insights into the future of ISR. With remote sensing experience that dates back to 2015, Sam helped get the UK's Drone Safe Register started while running his own commercial UAV operations for the Lowland Search and Rescue and pioneering architectural, wildlife, and environmental mapping techniques using automated and manual flights. After completing a Master's in Drone Technology, he worked with large sensor arrays for environmental impact assessments and accrued 2500 flight hours.

His passion is next-generation equipment, particularly the science behind it, with a particular interest in system integration and its user relationship. More recently, he's been steering back towards UAV and RPAS work, focusing on the Future of Flight program in the UK.

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